Your Favorite Things

How Will Climate Change Impact
Where You Live and What You Like?

The information below describes climate impacts that are predicted to occur under various scenarios. Links to the sources of the information are provided. The Your Climate Legacy project does not endorse any of these resources.  We present this information to help you think about the fact that the world in which your children and grandchildren live will be different from the world you know today.

Do you have links to articles and/or studies about how climate change will affect where you live or your favorite things? Email us and let us know.

Where You Live:

If you live in…

The United States

• By 2050, 32% of U.S. counties could be at risk of water shortages, compared with 10% today (Source: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/)

• By 2100, the contiguous United States could see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6˚C (Source: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

• If we continue on our current path, by 2050 between $66 billion and $106 billion worth of existing coastal property will likely be below sea level nationwide, with $238 billion to $507 billion worth of property below sea level by 2100. (Source: http://riskybusiness.org/report/overview/executive-summary)

The U.S.  Southwest

• The chief of the U.S. Forest Service has said that climate change will likely prolong the annual wildfire season. America’s wildfire season lasts two months longer than it did 40 years ago and burns up twice as much land as it did in those earlier days because of the hotter, drier conditions produced by climate change (Source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/04/climate-change-america-wildfire-season?CMP=twt_gu)

• Severe to extreme drought in the United States, which used to happen every 20 years, could become an every-other-year phenomenon by 2050. A 2007 study in Science predicted that the Southwest will be in a permanent drought condition by 2050. (Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/?mobile=nc)

• A 2011 report by the Stockholm Environment Institute found that drought and reduced precipitation in the U.S. Southwest could cost up to $1 trillion by 2100 (Source: http://sei-international.org/publications?pid=1843)

The U.S. East Coast

• The intensity of Atlantic hurricanes is likely to increase as the ocean warms. Climate models project that for each 1.8°F increase in tropical sea surface temperatures the rainfall rates of hurricanes could increase by 6-18% and the wind speeds of the strongest hurricanes could increase by about 1-8%. (Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html#)

The following states

• Arizona: By 2100, much of Arizona could be subjected to temperatures of 105°F or more for 98 days out of the year. (Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/?mobile=nc)

• Connecticut: State officials have warned that climate change will likely cause coastal flooding along the state’s beaches, including the inundation of the popular Hammonasset Beach State Park by the end of the century. (Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/30/connecticut-climate-change_n_3677998.html?utm_hp_ref=green)

• Connecticut: State officials have warned that maple syrup, dairy, warm weather produce, shellfish and apple and pear production could be affected by changes in temperature and the abundance of rain or lack of it, which could reduce production yields, lead to contamination of agricultural goods such as shellfish and the need for costly infrastructure to compensate for the damage.(Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/30/connecticut-climate-change_n_3677998.html?utm_hp_ref=green)

• Delaware: According to a state report, summer temperatures in Delaware may resemble those of Savannah, Ga., by 2100. The state may see 65 days per year of temperatures at 95 degrees Farenheit or above. Average summer temperatures may go up by 6 to 12 degrees. (Source: http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/ClimateChange/Pages/ClimateAssessment.aspx)

• Florida: Sea level could rise by 5-6 feet within the next century. If this occurs, barrier islands, beaches, and the Florida Keys would be underwater. The Everglades, which gives the region its fresh water, could be contaminated by the advance of the ocean. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/11/us/south-florida-faces-ominous-prospects-from-rising-waters.html)

• Hawaii’s major beaches and tourist attractions, such as Waikiki Beach, could be underwater or heavily eroded by 2100. Hawaii will also face more heat-related illnesses, invasive species, drought, and coral bleaching. (Source: http://seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/sites/default/files/publications/smfinal-hawaiiclimatechange.pdf)

• Lousiana: According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, by 2100 the Gulf of Mexico could rise 4.3 feet, covering everything outside of the protective levees – most of Southeast Louisiana. (Source: http://www.salon.com/2014/09/05/climate_changes_newest_threat_the_gulf_of_mexico_is_devouring_southeastern_louisiana_partner/)

• New Jersey: Geoscientists at Rutgers and Tufts estimate that the New Jersey shore will likely experience a sea-level rise of about 1.5 feet by 2050 and of about 3.5 feet by 2100 — 11 to 15 inches higher than the average for sea-level rise globally over the century. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131205142222.htm#.UqOckqrLI4A.twitter)

• New York: Storm surges and tidal waters are now likely to top Manhattan’s 6 foot downtown seawall every four or five years, 20 times more often than in the mid-19th century. (Source: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059574/abstract)

• North Carolina: By the end of the century, sea level could rise 39 inches on North Carolina’s Outer Banks, flooding many homes and businesses and costing billions of dollars in damages. (Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.html)

• Texas: The seemingly endless and often torrential rains that deluged Texas and Oklahoma in May are in some ways a harbinger of what the South Central states can expect to see as the world warms. (Source: http://grist.org/climate-energy/texans-should-brace-for-more-rainstorms-more-drought-and-more-headaches)

• Washington, DC: Washington, DC could experience temperatures exceeding 98°F for approximately 60 days a year by 2100 (Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/?mobile=nc)

• Washington, DC: By 2100, as much as $7 billion worth of property in will be threatened by storm-driven flooding. This includes 1,000 homes, three military bases and a large area of the National Mall. (Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/flooding-from-storm-surge-would-threaten-dc-infrastructure-report-says/2014/09/15/43b2c7fe-3cfd-11e4-9587-5dafd96295f0_story.html)

The Tropics

• According to a 2013 study from the University of Hawaii, Manoa, the tropics are likely to experience unprecedented climate change on average 16 years earlier than the rest of the world, starting as early as 2020 in Indonesia. (Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/uncomfortable-climates-devastate-cities-within-decade-study-says-8C11363468)

Africa

• By 2050, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change (Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm)

• Climate change will lead to more “failed seasons” in which small-scale farmers cannot grow crops. This could result in the number of malnourished people in sub-Saharan Africa increasing by 40% by 2050 – from 223 million people to 355 million people. (Source: http://agra-alliance.org/our-results/agra-status-reports/)

Europe

• 251,000 people per year in Europe are likely to be affected by river flooding by 2080 (Source: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

• Summer heat waves in Europe will be commonplace by the 2040s. Once every five years, Europe is likely to experience “a very hot summer,” in which temperatures are about 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1961-90 average. This is up from the probability a decade ago that such events would occur only once every 52 years. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/europe/global-warming-to-make-european-heat-waves-commonplace-by-2040s-study-finds.html)

North America

• According to the 2014 IPCC report, global warming of approximately 2°C is very likely to lead to more frequent extreme heat events and daily precipitation extremes over most areas of North America, more frequent low snow years, and shifts towards earlier snowmelt runoff over much of the western US and Canada. These changes are projected to lead to increased stresses to water, agriculture, economic activities and urban and rural settlements. (Source: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap26_FGDall.pdf)

• Extreme snowstorms will continue with heavy intensity, even as winters overall become milder.
  (Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v512/n7515/full/nature13625.html)

What You Like…

If you enjoy the following foods…

• Beer: Hops, a grain, the main ingredient of beer will be just as inflicted by a changing climate as any other plant, causing breweries trouble. (Source: http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2015/06/24/415538451/survival-of-the-greenest-beer-breweries-adapt-to-a-changing-climate)

• Chocolate: Cocoa production is expected to decline by 2030. The area suitable for growing cocoa in Ghana and Ivory Coast, where more than half the world’s chocolate is sourced from, will shrink considerably. (Source: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-could-melt-chocolate-production)

• Coffee: The spread of a deadly coffee fungus is linked to rising global temperatures (Source: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/03/27/buzzkill-how-climate-change-could-eventually-end-coffee)

• Guacamole: Chipotle has warned its investors that extreme weather events associated with climate change might eventually affect the availability of some of its ingredients, including avocados for guacamole (Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/04/3360731/chipotle-guacamole-crisis/)

• Fish: As a result of  ocean acidification and warmer water that holds less oxygen, fish catches will decrease by 40 to 60 percent in most parts of the world. Some fish will migrate north, but other species will go extinct. (Source: http://cmsdevelopment.sustainablefish.org.s3.amazonaws.com/2014/05/27/IPCC_AR5_Fisheries_Summary_FINAL_Web-1001a188.pdf)

• Maple Syrup: A study from Cornell University found that increased tree mortality from soil frost and a reduction in sap yield from warmer temperatures will affect maple sugar production. Among the likely changes are losses of production at the southern edge of the zone where maple syrup is produced and increases near the northern edges, but production losses are likely to occur faster than new trees can grow in the north. Source: (http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2010/11/100-years-maple-sap-will-flow-month-earlier)

• Peanut butter: A moderate increase in temperature will reduce the yield of peanut crops, making peanut butter more expensive and/or scarcer. (Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/previous-assessments/global-climate-change-impacts-in-the-us-2009)

• Rice, maize, and wheat: A recent study from the University of Leeds in Australia found that global warming of only 2°C will be detrimental to these crops in temperate and tropical regions, with reduced yields from the 2030s onwards.(Source: http://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/3505/climate_change_will_reduce_crop_yields_sooner_than_we_thought)

• Wine: In the U.S., the area capable of consistently producing grapes required for the highest quality wines is projected to decline by more than 50% by late this century. (Source: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report)

If you like the following activities…

• Birdwatching: According to the National Audubon Society, climate change could put about half of North America’s bird species at risk of losing more than 50% of their current range by 2100. This includes the bald eagle, the Baltimore oriole, and state birds from Louisiana, Utah, Vermont, Nevada, Idaho, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Washington, D.C. (Source: http://climate.audubon.org/)

• Fishing: A 2011 study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that suitable habitat for trout in the interior western United States could decline 47% due to warming rivers and changes in river flows (Source: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/34/14175)

• Hiking: Poison ivy thrives in higher temperatures and carbon dioxide levels, so it will be harder to avoid while hiking. The potency and spread of poison ivy has doubled since 1960, and researchers say that will double again should the planet reach 560 ppm of carbon dioxide. (Source: http://www.post-gazette.com/health/2013/07/22/Climate-change-is-making-poison-ivy-grow-bigger-and-badder/stories/201307220149)

• Hiking: If you hike or spend time in the wilderness, you will be exposed to an increased risk of Lyme disease. A National Wildlife Federation study found that Lyme disease’s carrier, the deer tick, is expected to survive warming winters in greater numbers and to increase its range by more than half. (Source: http://www.nwf.org/~/media/PDFs/Global-Warming/Reports/NowheretoRun-BigGameWildlife-LowResFinal_110613.ashx)

• Hiking: If enjoying the view is the reason you hike, prepare to see a decrease in nature’s natural beauty with the loss of wildflowers. (Source: http://grist.org/news/these-lovely-innocent-wildflowers-are-slowly-dying-thanks-climate-change)

• Hunting: According to a study by the National Wildlife Federation, severe drought, rising temperatures and greater weather extremes will negatively impact a variety of big game animals, such as caribou, deer, moose, mule deer, pronghorn and white-tailed deer, and bighorn sheep. (Source: http://www.nwf.org/~/media/PDFs/Global-Warming/Reports/NowheretoRun-BigGameWildlife-LowResFinal_110613.ashx)

• Skiing: warmer winters will lead to less snow: studies from the University of Colorado found that if we continue to pollute the way we do now, skiing will be confined to the top quarter of Aspen Mountain in average years by the end of the century. Utah’s Park City Mountain Resort will have no snowpack whatsoever. (Source: http://grist.org/climate-energy/as-the-climate-warms-skiers-can-kiss-their-aspen-goodbye/?utm_campaign=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter)

• Skiing: A  study in New England found that only four of the region’s 14 major ski resorts will still be profitable by 2100   (Source: http://grist.org/climate-energy/as-the-climate-warms-skiers-can-kiss-their-aspen-goodbye/?utm_campaign=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter)

If you like…

• Christmas trees: Drought, heat, and localized extreme flooding, all of which have been linked to climate change, will cause a decrease in Christmas tree crops. (Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/12/02/3007481/floods-heat-christmas-tree-deaths/)

• Coral reefs: Sea-level rise, ocean acidification and warming temperatures pose a massive threat to coral reefs. According to NOAA, as temperature and ocean acidity rise, mass bleaching, infectious disease outbreaks and reef destruction from de-calcification and acidification will become more frequent. (Source: http://coralreef.noaa.gov/threats/climate/)

• Electricity: Electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, including power lines and substations, is susceptible to severe weather and may be stressed by rising demand for electricity as temperatures rise. (Source: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-74)

• Energy: Greenhouse gas-driven changes in temperature will likely necessitate the construction of up to 95 gigawatts of new power generation capacity over the next 5 to 25 years, costing residential and commercial ratepayers up to $12 billion per year. (Source: http://riskybusiness.org/report/overview/executive-summary)

• Mt. Everest: Climbing Mt. Everest is likely to become less predictable and more dangerous, as climate change brings warmer temperatures that may melt the ice and snow on the mountain. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/04/23/world/asia/ap-as-nepal-everest-risk.html?hp&_r=0)

• National Parks: Glacier National Park used to have 150 ice sheets and now has about 25. In 30 years, all of the glaciers may be gone. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/23/us/climate-change-threatens-to-strip-the-identity-of-glacier-national-park.html)

• National Security: According to a report from the Government Accountability Office, U.S. Military installations are vulnerable to and unprepared for the effects of climate change. (Source: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-446)

• National Security: A report from the Pentagon says that climate change poses an immediate threat to national security, with increased risks from terrorism, infectious disease, global poverty and food shortages. (Source: http://www.defense.gov/Releases/Release.aspx?ReleaseID=16976)

• Peace: The U.S. Department of Defense has warned that climate change may exacerbate water scarcity and food shortages, fueling competition over resources. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions — conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence (Source: http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_Quadrennial_Defense_Review.pdf)

• Winter Olympics: According to researchers at Canada’s University of Waterloo and Austria’s Management Center Innsbruck, if global warming continues at its current rate, only 10 of the previous 19 Winter Olympics host cities will be cold enough to reliably host the Games in the 2050s. By the end of the century, that number could drop to six. (Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/23/winter-olympics-climate-change-study_n_4653416.html?1390515994)

• World Heritage Sites: A recent study in the journal Environmental Research Letters found that with a temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius, more than 40 of the 720 UNESCO World Heritage sites will be threatened by sea-level rise in the next 2,000 years.  If temperatures rise 3 C, which is well within the range scientists predict, nearly one-fifth of heritage sites will be affected. (Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/3/034001/article)

If you live on Earth…

• Climate: A recent study from the University of Hawaii used a collection of global climate models to create an index of estimates on when a given spot on the globe is likely to change beyond the norms of variability between 1860 and 2005. Under a business-as-usual scenario where humans keep burning fossil fuels as they are today, globally that threshold is crossed around 2047. If greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized, these dates are delayed only by several decades. (Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/uncomfortable-climates-devastate-cities-within-decade-study-says-8C11363468)

• Climate: Most people living today were not born the last time the Earth was cooler than average, in 1985. (Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/us-climatechange-warming-idUSKBN0G61BC20140806)

• Agriculture: By 2050, crop yields are projected to decrease worldwide: 14-25% for wheat, 19-35% for maize, 15-30% for soybeans (source: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

• Agriculture: A warmer climate will be the cause of shorter growing seasons, drought in the tropics and a decrease in the ability to absorb nitrogen. (source: http://grist.org/news/think-climate-change-will-be-good-for-plants-think-again)

• Allergies: Some allergies could be made significantly worse as climate changes cause pollen counts to increase. There is also evidence that climate change will worsen other factors related to respiratory allergies and asthma, such as summertime ozone concentrations and the growth of indoor fungi and molds. (Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/05/30/climate-change-allergies-asthma/2163893/)

• Disease: Some areas in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and China could be exposed to a 50 percent higher malaria transmission probability rate by 2050 (Source: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

• Sea-level Rise: A meter of sea-level rise would create more than 100 million environmental refugees worldwide (Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/?mobile=nc)

• Ecosystems: By 2100, 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction (Source: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

• Economy: A delay in addressing global warming that results in warming of 3° Celsius above preindustrial levels instead of 2° could increase economic damages by approximately 0.9 percent of global output. (Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/us-climatechange-warming-idUSKBN0G61BC20140806)